Models in Cuba Predict Control of Arboviruses by Early 2026

Mathematical models predict complete control of the arbovirus epidemic in Cuba by early 2026. Stated Raúl Guinovart, Director of Science and Technology at the University of Havana.

The mathematician made this statement during the weekly meeting of experts and scientists on health issues convened by Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez to address. From a scientific perspective, the fight against these diseases caused by mosquito-borne viruses.

According to the expert, the incidence of arboviruses has decreased in different regions of the Caribbean country. Although the provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and the special municipality of Isla de la Juventud still show an upward trend in reported cases.

In this regard, the Deputy Minister of Public Health (MINSAP), Carilda Peña García, confirmed that febrile syndromes decreased by 25.8 percent compared to the previous week’s statistics.

Meanwhile, Matanzas, where the chikungunya outbreak began in Cuba, is on a path to success, according to epidemiological terms.

Compared to the previous seven days, there were 5,638 fewer cases of febrile syndromes treated in the nation’s health institutions. An indicator that reflects the control of the epidemic, both for dengue and chikungunya.

Dr. Ailuj Casanova Barreto, General Director of Medical and Social Care at MINSAP, explained that today more than 93 percent of pregnant women at 37 weeks gestation are hospitalized. To keep them in safe places where neither they nor their babies, considered the most vulnerable, are at risk.

Currently, he noted, there are 27 patients in serious and critical condition receiving intensive care and the largest group is children. However, it’s important to mention that the perceived risk for children has increased. As they are arriving at health services earlier and are being discharged from intensive care with very good prognoses.
“If we continue like this, we can end the year without any pregnant women dying from arbovirus in the country,” the doctor added.

At the meeting, which was attended by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz, progress in the care of patients in the chronic stage of chikungunya was discussed. Starting with the establishment of multidisciplinary consultations that include specialties in Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Pediatrics, Traditional and Natural Medicine, Internal Medicine, and Psychology.

With information from Prensa Latina

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