The United States government wants to bring democracy to Iran. It happens to be an oil-rich country. Which, as an economic power, it needs to develop, among many other economic sectors. Artificial Intelligence, which consumes a great deal of energy for its creation, development, and maintenance.
If we recall the saying: every war has a political pretext and an economic objective. It essentially demonstrates why the US invaded Iraq, Venezuela, and now Iran.
But what do the experts who know what lies behind the wall of Trump’s policy say?
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned that the escalation of the conflict with Iran. A possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a “collapse scenario” for the US economy.
Dalio draws a parallel with the 1956 Suez Crisis, when the United Kingdom lost its status as the world’s reserve currency. It warns that a shift in oil trade from the dollar to the yuan could erode the foundations of the petrodollar system.
According to his analysis, the United States’ economic hegemony depends. To a large extent, on the global use of the dollar in energy transactions.
If producing and consuming nations begin settling transactions in alternative currencies. Such as the Chinese yuan, the structural demand for the US dollar would decrease. With potentially severe consequences for its financing capacity. Its international financial influence, and its geoeconomic position.
This forecast is framed within a context of transformation of the global economic order. Also where trends such as dedollarization, the creation of alternative payment systems. And China’s growing influence in emerging markets are gaining momentum.
Analysts recommend comparing these projections with official data and maintaining a balanced perspective. In the face of highly uncertain scenarios, where major military, diplomatic, and financial factors converge.
It is estimated that the price of a barrel of oil will rise to between $150 and $200. Japan has already paid in yuan for the crude it buys and needs to transport across the Strait of Hormuz to ensure its supply, because it is currently using its reserves of black gold. Which is a significant blow to the dollar.
What is clear is that China is on the verge of becoming the world’s leading economic power. Trump, unwittingly, is contributing to this inevitable shift in global economic power.
On the political chessboard, Trump’s poorly considered strategic moves are backfiring. Once again, he demonstrates that he is a businessman-tycoon sitting in the Oval Office, but not a politically astute individual. Much less a geopolitical one. This will contribute to China becoming the dominant economic power. While the US seeks to maintain its position as the engine of the global economy.
Reality will be harsh for Trump and his team, who manage politics with reactions rather than sound political reasoning.
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